USDTRY bullish triggers seen. 1.9517 initial target.

Yesterday’s 2nd positive daily performance in a row took USDTRY
through the 21 day moving average. The market has been
fluctuating around that point for almost a month but this time
the bullish break has been confirmed with a positive crossover
in strength indicators (RSI) - through the moving average and a
trend of lower reading highs. Potential now for 1.9517 as
minimum target.

CABLE shows Marabuzo gains

Once again the Marabuzo line has shown its relevance in providing trend recognition and levels that will hold corrective moves.
The chart below shows the rise in CABLE from this month's low. Steady gains from the bottom of the Keltner channel to the top but the 2 Marabuzo lines stand out, especially August 2nd where the pullback 3 days later held that point exactly.
Do you use Marabuzo lines as a tool for your trading? If not, why not?

EURSEK - Great example of Marabuzo lines

To my mind the usefulness of Marabuzo lines is undoubted but its good to emphasis the point every now and again.
Below is a chart covering the rise in EURSEK over the last 2 weeks. Obviously the rejection of the lower end of the Keltner channel was the 1st sign of demand but since the upside began there have been two perfect example of the Marabuzo line catching profit taking and acting as a platform for the trend to continue.
Are using this indicator in your trading yet?

EURSEK - Marabuzo Line Dominates

Take a look at the chart below to see the relevance of the Marabuzo line created by the strong gains from last Friday.
Despite some huge volatility in this cross the line, 8.6700, is holding on a closing basis.
There's no confirmation yet but it is likely that a platform for higher levels is being built. Look for close above 8.7400 to indicate this.

EURGBP remains dominated by Marabuzo line

Not a tremendous amount of signals jumping out at us this morning despite the strong moves seen during last week.
Looking for lower levels in EURUSD, CABLE, Bunds and Equities though.
EURGBP is a tough one. Conflicting signals as the Marabuzo line created 5 weeks ago is basing the downside on a weekly closing basis. But while I would normally expect this point to have acted as a platform for demand there has been a distinct lack of follow through.

Take a look at the chart below - any thoughts?

Hammering Bund Bears

Trading in the early part of this week saw the strong decline from May's high extend to more than 5 1/2 points.
These lows, outside the Keltner channel, were sharply rejected Tuesday with that price action forming a Bullish Hammer pattern on daily candle charts. This has led to a significant rally (150-tics from the low - almost 100 from Tuesday's close).
Interestingly there is the strong possibility that Friday's close will confirm the formation of the same Bullish Hammer pattern on weekly candle charts.
Will we see the same impact? If so there's potential for 144.88 or even 145.51 (see charts below).
Have a great weekend.

Marabuzo Line supports GBPUSD

Interesting Marabuzo line created last Thursday comes in at 1.5506 and the 3 trading days since have seen prices supported by that point.
Last week's highs haven't been tested and prices are showing a lack of clear sentiment at this point.
However with the Keltner channel mildly positive and support also provided by the 13 day ema, this Marabuzo line could become even more significant in the coming days.

EURCZK - Supporting Marabuzo threatened.

This month has seen EURCZK appreciate by 2.5% from the low.
This powerful rise has been reflected by the bullish tone of the Keltner channel and supported by the 13 day ema and by distinct Marabuzo lines.
This week the upside has stalled and the market attempt to profit take. This has resulted in volatile but trendless trading but the 13 day average is coming under threat and the support of the Marabuzo line from May 15th, 25.950, is becoming ever more crucial.
Certainly worth keeping an eye on from a closing basis perspective.
That's it from us for this week - here's hoping the weather is kinder this bank holiday weekend than the current wet, windy miserable outlook from my office window.
Enjoy.

USDCHF - Weekly Marabuzo line to limit setbacks

Investor demand for USDCHF since April’s low continued last week.

A 2nd positive weekly performance in succession was posted with a move that took the currency pair to the most positive levels traded for 9 months and a correction of 76% of the 2012-13 decline.

In addition momentum is supportive, prices are above the important 13 day moving average, and the market is ‘hugging’ the top of the Keltner channel – a trending indicator.

Overbought extremes offer a note of caution but allowing for some profit taking to develop but expecting setbacks to continue to be limited with the Marabuzo line created by last week's price action likely to attract investors on any dip.

USDCAD uses Marabuzo line as platform

Cold and grey here in London and the early FX market has lacked any really strong signals to get excited about.
Was disappointed to see #EURGBP post early gains - though they haven't been maintained but what was rewarding was the rise in #USDCAD,
This move is based on the Marabuzo line drawn by Tuesday's price action. This comes in at 1.0143 and the 2 subsequent days found buying interest close to that point while today's acceleration has confirmed the relevance.
Of course it is not the Marabuzo line alone that was the basis for a positive stance; the Keltner channel is bullish, prices moved back above the key 13 day moving average with Tuesday's improvement and the market is now through the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud pattern.
Nonetheless the Marabuzo line was always going to provide a great level to work from.
Have a great weekend.

USDCHF - Marabuzo line acts as platform

April's decline based at a Marabuzo line created by February's sharp improvement - see the chart.
May's new demand has used that point as a platform for a move to the most positive levels traded for 9 months.

A move through the top of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud and a strong move upward from the 13, 100 & 200 day moving averages also emphasises teh importance of the Marabuzo line support.

Marabuzo Caps EURGBP

Interesting that even on a daily perspective the impact of  a Marabuzo line can stretch a surprising distance.
Take a look at the EURGBP chart below and you'll see how rallies since the Marabuzo created on the 25th April have been capped, on a closing basis, at this point.
We're looking at a potential retest of .8398/8400 lows but until the market closes above the Marabuzo line (or another is formed in due course) then the tone cannot be regarded as anything other than bearish.

Marabuzo line to support EURCZK

The market has taken some profits after gains from February’s low. But after a sequence of 3 negative weekly performances, and a correction of half of that upside, this week has seen a renewal of demand for the cross.


Yesterday's strong gains dominate that upside with the move taking prices through the key 13 day mvg avg and turning the important Keltner channel positive.

Trading is likely to continue to be volatile but setbacks are likely to be limited by 25.755, a Marabuzo line, on a closing basis.

EURGBP capped by Marabuzo Line

Interesting that the rally in EURGBP from last week's 13 week low stalled at a Marabuzo line formed by last Thursday's decline.
Gains also peaked at the trend defining 13 day moving average and formed a Doji.
These bearish factors have been confirmed by today's modest decline although we'd expect an early move beneath .8425 to confirm.

Intraday Marabuzo work too - NOKSEK

Take a look at the 4 hourly chart below on NOKSEK.
The double top created by last week's high and Monday's top led to a sharp decline but this downside was held - on a closing basis, by the Marabuzo line created at 1.1156.
That point has acted as a platform for fresh buying although we need to see a close above 1.1212 (another Marabuzo line, although less strong for obvious reasons) to confirm a stronger move higher.

EURCZK - Gains Supported by Marabuzo lines

EURCZK has been in a steady uptrend of higher lows and higher highs since last September.

There have been some aggressive setbacks - most notably a strong bout of profit taking in the first full week of February -  but this month has seen the cross trade to the highest levels since last June.

There is no sign of this demand stalling and even on a shorter term basis the move from March's low has been supported by a key 13 day moving average and, the main point of this blog, by Marabuzo lines. These can clearly been on the chart.

Look for a move through 25.950 to confirm the next higher high with potential targets of 26.050 and 26.125.

USDCAD supported by Marabuzo lines

Interesting in USDCAD with 2 Marabuzo lines having an influence on current trading.
The background is dominated by the line drawn from half of the net gains from 8 weeks ago, 1.0138. This point has been tested in each of the last 3 weeks but without breaking on a weekly closing basis. Yesterday's sharp acceleration away from that point adds to its relevance.
And it is yesterday's powerful gains - the most aggressive of 2013 - that has formed the 2nd Marabuzo line.
This comes in at 1.0192 and has held the Asian setback. It isn't yet clear that a more severe test of the level won't be seen but likely that traders who missed yesterday's move will look for that point to put matters right.

Marabuzo line supports T-Notes

The relevance of a Marabuzo line can be seen from last week's price action in T-Notes.
Last week's move to new contract highs was the 4th positive week in succession. Because gains were exceptional a Marabuzo line could be drawn coming in at 132-14.
The move did leave the market over-extended and this,unsurprisingly, led to some profit taking this week. 132-14 could be expected to attract buyers and this is exactly what we've seen with the market reaching only 3 tics below before buying interest was renewed.
A net minor decline may have been posted on the week but the usefulness of Marabuzo lines can be clearly seen.